Can the deal still unravel?
We publish with the author’s permission and on his behalf his text with the original title from the website The European Liberal Youth.
Can the deal still unravel?
Legally, Bulgaria cannot “opt out” once the Council regulation is in force; backing out would require either breaching the convergence criteria or persuading all EU members to amend the treaties. Economically, the lev has been pegged to the euro’s predecessor since 1999, so monetary sovereignty is already limited. The lev was pegged to the Deutsche Mark after the 1997 banking crisis and joined the EU in 2007 with the goal of adopting the euro “as soon as possible.” Entry into ERM II came in mid‑2020, but the post‑pandemic inflation surge forced Bulgaria to scrap a 2024 launch date and then miss a fallback target for 2025. Rapid disinflation in 2024–25 finally put the macro numbers back inside the Maastricht fence and reopened the door.
